Start Date

23-4-2018 3:00 PM

End Date

23-4-2018 3:30 PM

Disciplines

Infra-Balkans Relations & External Relations of the Balkan Region

Description

Recently, there has been much public debate on the deterioration of the EU-Turkish relationship in terms of accession prospects for Turkey, many often blaming the democratic backsliding within the country for the declining likelihood of accession. Enlargement literature generally treats Turkey as a sui generis case for reasons such as geographic location and religious background. This paper, however, considers Turkey a sui generis case for a different reason: it is the only candidate country so far to transition away from, rather than towards, democracy. The main aim of this paper is to address whether the deterioration of the prospects of Turkish accession to the EU has been more the result of Turkish or EU actions. By analyzing the development of Turkish accession through changes over time of indicators of democratic backsliding and economic interdependence between Turkey and the EU, the paper shows which actor has caused the pulling back of relations in a given time period. This study aims to fill a gap in enlargement theory by analyzing a factor traditionally overlooked, regime change. Preliminary empirical observations show that, as Turkey progressed from asymmetric to symmetric economic interdependence with the EU, accession conditions began to delay until the halt we witness today. The analysis demonstrates that, with Turkey sliding towards illiberal democracy and progressing independently as a growing economic power, the EU has lost the leverage it once had over Turkey. This outcome allows some predictions on the future of the EU-Turkish relationship and the possible paths it may continue upon.

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Apr 23rd, 3:00 PM Apr 23rd, 3:30 PM

The Turkish Moonwalk-Who is responsible for the backsliding of Turkish accession into the EU?

Recently, there has been much public debate on the deterioration of the EU-Turkish relationship in terms of accession prospects for Turkey, many often blaming the democratic backsliding within the country for the declining likelihood of accession. Enlargement literature generally treats Turkey as a sui generis case for reasons such as geographic location and religious background. This paper, however, considers Turkey a sui generis case for a different reason: it is the only candidate country so far to transition away from, rather than towards, democracy. The main aim of this paper is to address whether the deterioration of the prospects of Turkish accession to the EU has been more the result of Turkish or EU actions. By analyzing the development of Turkish accession through changes over time of indicators of democratic backsliding and economic interdependence between Turkey and the EU, the paper shows which actor has caused the pulling back of relations in a given time period. This study aims to fill a gap in enlargement theory by analyzing a factor traditionally overlooked, regime change. Preliminary empirical observations show that, as Turkey progressed from asymmetric to symmetric economic interdependence with the EU, accession conditions began to delay until the halt we witness today. The analysis demonstrates that, with Turkey sliding towards illiberal democracy and progressing independently as a growing economic power, the EU has lost the leverage it once had over Turkey. This outcome allows some predictions on the future of the EU-Turkish relationship and the possible paths it may continue upon.

 

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