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Abstract

This client report examines recurring military coups in the Sahel region of Africa and the probability of implications for U.S. interests. We incorporated analysis of terrorist organizations, adversarial involvement in the region, and projected socioeconomic factors in the next three to five years. Our analysis indicates these factors could pose a direct threat to U.S. national security interests. Current U.S. policy prohibits aid distribution to coup governments, increasing the likelihood that Sahelian countries will turn to U.S. adversaries for economic support. An additional aspect to consider is the Sahel’s natural resources and economic opportunities. Our project utilizes in-depth research, geospatial analysis, data mining, and future scenarios exploration to assess the likelihood of prevailing instability in the Sahel region and provide our sponsor with an opportunistic analysis.

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